Expert's Blog

The Trade War Is Not Over: What Alberta Small Business Owners Should Be Doing Right Now

May 1st, 2026

You have probably felt it already: a supplier price increase here, a delayed shipment there, a customer tightening their budget. The U.S.-Canada trade tensions that rattled businesses in 2025 have not gone away in 2026. They have simply become the new normal. For Alberta small business owners, that means it’s time to stop waiting and start planning.

To start off, here’s a video on three Canadian businesses thriving in the trade war environment.

Where Things Stand

The good news is that Alberta has weathered the trade storm better than most of Canada. According to ATB Financial's 2026 economic outlook, Alberta's real GDP is projected to grow at 2.1% this year, outpacing the national average. Rising energy production and a relatively lower exposure to U.S. tariffs have helped.

But that resilience is not evenly distributed. If your business buys supplies, equipment, or materials with any connection to U.S. or global supply chains, you are likely paying more than you were two years ago. And uncertainty about the future of CUSMA (the Canada-U.S.-Mexico trade agreement) is making long-term planning feel like a guessing game.

There’s Federal Money on the Table—Are You Claiming It?

Here is something many Alberta business owners do not realize: the federal government has a $1-billion program specifically designed to help businesses like yours. The Regional Tariff Response Initiative (RTRI), delivered through Prairies Economic Development Canada (PrairiesCan), provides non-repayable funding to small and medium-sized businesses affected by tariff disruptions. The application portal is still open.

What Your Books Should Be Telling You

Trade uncertainty is ultimately a financial planning problem, and your accounting records are your best early-warning system. A few things worth reviewing with your accountant right now:

Are your margins holding? Rising input costs may not show up as a crisis immediately—they erode profit slowly. A proper margin analysis by product or service line can reveal where you are most exposed.
Is your pricing keeping pace? Many business owners absorb cost increases rather than pass them on, which quietly destroys profitability over time.
Are you tracking tariff-related costs separately? If you plan to apply for relief programs like the RTRI, having clean documentation of tariff-related expenses will strengthen your application.
Do you have a cash flow buffer? Supply chain disruptions can create gaps between when you pay your suppliers and when your customers pay you. A line of credit or cash reserve strategy is worth revisiting.

Resilience Is a Financial Strategy

Alberta businesses have always been built tough. But resilience in today's economy is not just about grit—it's about having the right financial information to make smart decisions quickly. Whether that means diversifying your supplier base, adjusting your pricing model, restructuring debt, or applying for government support, your accountant should be part of that conversation.

Contact Shaw & Associates Chartered Accountants for accounting help you can count on. One complimentary meeting with us will put you and your business on a more profitable and positive path.